Ryan Norys, chief revenue officer of Tottenham, was supposed to speak in front of the American business elite last month in Austin, Texas, for South by Southwest. However, the business lesson with an English football flavour was cancelled at the last minute. The reason? Almost 8,000 kilometres away, Spurs had just been overwhelmed 5-2 by Atlético Madrid, effectively crashing out of the lucrative Champions League. And they were on the brink of the relegation zone in the Premier League.
Things have not changed; if anything, they have got worse: De Zerbi’s team is currently third from bottom, two points behind fourth-bottom West Ham, and therefore seriously risks falling into the Championship. If things do not improve, it would be a genuine seismic shock for global football. And for the markets. Yes, because we are talking about a team that in recent seasons has established itself as one of the most solid entities in the football business: revenues have tripled to more than 650 million euros, thanks to results on the pitch and to a billion-euro stadium that hosts Beyoncé concerts, American football games and even go-kart races. Because of this situation, relegation from the Champions League would be a very heavy blow to the credibility of the football system as a sector for profitable investments. And it would cause overall damage, looking at brand values, of 1.73 billion euros.
«It is as if a state contractor lost a major infrastructure project», analyst François Godard explained to the Times. According to Ampere Sports, revenues could collapse by around 311 million euros, while the club’s valuation — which had come close to 4 billion — would undergo a drastic downsizing. The difficulties have not come out of nowhere. Part of the fan base accuses the management of having prioritised real-estate development and global branding at the expense of sporting results. Criticism has also focused on the high turnover of managers and ticket prices among the highest in the league.
For years, the key figures were billionaire Joe Lewis and his long-time associate Daniel Levy. Under their management, Tottenham was long considered one of the best-run clubs in Europe, culminating in 2019 with the opening of the new stadium and the Champions League final reached under the guidance of Mauricio Pochettino, with stars such as Harry Kane and Son Heung-min on the pitch. From that moment, however, the decline began. Pochettino was sacked a few months later, opening a period of technical instability and ineffective market decisions. Not even the Europa League success of a year ago, which replenished the club’s trophy cabinet after almost twenty years of drought, managed to reverse the trend.
The management has now acknowledged its mistakes: real-estate projects have been suspended, greater investment in wages has been promised and new strategies have been launched to improve recruitment, injury management and the academy. However, for many fans, these interventions have come too late. And not only for London fans: a sporting collapse such as Spurs’ relegation would call into question the perception of stability surrounding major European clubs, making them less attractive to investors. This is a particularly sensitive issue for the American market, where the concept of relegation does not exist. «US investors hate relegation», Godard stressed. And the risk that even established clubs could plunge could radically change the way European football is assessed financially.