The first news came out in the Financial Times, so we can consider it quite reliable: the Italian-American entrepreneur Paolo Zampolli, who holds the institutional role of “special envoy of the President of the United States Donald Trump for global partnerships,” reportedly asked FIFA to exclude Iran from the 2026 World Cup. And to admit Italy to the final phase instead of the Asian national team. The Azzurri, as we know very well, failed to reach the final phase for the third consecutive time due to their defeat against Bosnia in the UEFA qualifying playoffs. And it is the 12th national team in the FIFA Ranking, the highest-ranked among those that failed to qualify.
Now we need to provide some context: as mentioned, Iran has qualified for the World Cup, but the ongoing war – precisely against the United States – inevitably casts doubt on the Asian national team’s participation. No matter how much Gianni Infantino (FIFA president) may confirm – and has confirmed – that the Tehran delegation and players will be able to land and play peacefully on American soil, it is frankly hard to imagine how that could happen. Not surprisingly, one of the very few official statements from the Iranian government, a few weeks ago, was steeped in skepticism: Ahmad Donyamali, the Minister of Sport, was interviewed during a television program and said that “the American regime has assassinated our leader, our children are not safe, and there are no conditions for participation. They have committed evil acts against us, imposing two wars on us within eight or nine months: under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup.”
Since then, things have changed relatively, in the sense that the only official statements recorded, at least from Infantino, have been the optimistic ones we have already discussed. For his part, Donald Trump has said that Iranian players “would be welcome,” but at the same time added that it might be “inappropriate,” as well as “dangerous,” for them to play in the United States. Meanwhile, news has emerged about Tehran’s request to move Iran’s matches to Mexico: a request inevitably rejected, given that ticket sales have already started some time ago and it is not possible to change the schedule with just a few days left until the matches.
Returning to Zampolli, theFinancial Timesreported that Trump’s collaborator – and personal friend – forwarded the proposal for Italy’s reinstatement directly to the president after a trip to Italy, a trip that took place right around the time of the lost playoff against Bosnia. According to the FT, Infantino was also involved in these discussions, or at least informed of Zampolli’s idea. Zampolli himself confirmed – to the Financial Timesand to the Corriere della Sera– that he indeed suggested to Trump to have Italy play instead of Iran. According to several prestigious international newspapers, including the Guardian and the same Financial Times, behind Zampolli’s move is also the desire to mend relations between Trump and Giorgia Meloni, which have been strained after their mutual attacks and those against Pope Leo XIV.
But what is the real situation of Iran? And how could a potential withdrawal of Team Melli be managed? According to theFinancial Times, as of today, the Iranian government and the local football federation seem more open to playing in the United States, but the news has not been confirmed. While waiting to understand what Tehran’s final decision will be, another aspect to consider is the World Cup regulations. And indeed there would be, at least in theory, room to reinstate Italy. The reason is simple: in the article regulating a potential reinstatement, the mechanism and criteria for selecting a national team to be brought back into play are not clarified. In particular, point 5 states that “if a participating team withdraws or a match cannot be played, or is abandoned due to force majeure, the organizing body authorized by FIFA (including the tournament’s operational center) will decide on the matter at its sole discretion. And will take any action deemed necessary.” In article 6.7, it is stated that “if any participating federation withdraws and/or is excluded from the FIFA World Cup 26, FIFA will decide at its sole discretion and take all measures deemed necessary. FIFA may decide to replace the participating member association in question with another association.” In short, to put it bluntly: at the moment, the chances of seeing Italy at the World Cup as a reinstated national team, instead of Iran, are quite remote. But in any case, they are not completely zero, given that FIFA can manage a potential withdrawal of Iran as it sees fit.